The index includes land and sea surface temperature data back to , and today incorporates measurements from 6, weather stations, research stations, ships and buoys around the world. Like other surface temperature records, GISTEMP estimates the temperatures between weather stations using data from the closest stations, a process called interpolation. Quantifying the statistical uncertainty present in those estimates helped researchers to be confident that the interpolation was accurate.
The study found that individual and systematic changes in measuring temperature over time were the most significant source of uncertainty. Also contributing was the degree of weather station coverage. Data interpolation between stations contributed some uncertainty, as did the process of standardizing data that was collected with different methods at different points in history.
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After adding these components together, GISTEMP's uncertainty value in recent years was still less than a tenth of a degree Fahrenheit, which is "very small," Schmidt said. The team used the updated model to reaffirm that was very probably the warmest year in the record, with an The next most likely candidate for warmest year on record was , with a GISTEMP uses air temperature recorded with thermometers slightly above the ground or sea, while AIRS uses infrared sensing to measure the temperature right at the Earth's surface or "skin temperature" from space.
Comparing two measurements that were similar but recorded in very different ways ensured that they were independent of each other, Schmidt said. One difference was that AIRS showed more warming in the northernmost latitudes. The AIRS data suggests that it's warming even faster than we thought," said Schmidt, who was also a co-author on the Susskind paper. In all cases, he said, the resulting trends are more robust than what can be accounted for by any uncertainty in the data or methods.
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